- It may be appropriate in the near term to adjust policy rate
- Economy is slowing.
- Not clear the impact of tariffs on inflation.
- The economy has held up well despite the tariffs
- we have not seen the effects of the tariffs as businesses built their inventory in anticipation.
- The Fed needs to respond to the slowing economy
- We won’t know the answer to inflation for a while, meanwhile data on slowing is clear.
- I can see two rate cuts this year.
- If inflation does rise because of tariffs, the Fed could pause or even hike.
- These tariffs affects take a lot longer to be clear. If the data is a slowing, how long can we wait for the tariff effect
- It might be better to cut and then pause for reverse a cut versus sitting here and waiting.
- The unemployment number is a very important, but Fed knows provisions are possible.
- Wage growth is declining, which would suggest the labor market is cooling
- Will not comment on the Pres. personnel choices, but does not doubt the BLS data
- Ultimately you cannot fake economic reality
- People will feel the economy. They cannot be convinced jobs or inflation data are different than what they are.
Since the US jobs report, I would expect the Fed
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
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