It will soon be time to recalibrate policy to better match our economy. Both mandates are in tensions now. Tariffs are pushing inflation higher and the labour market is slowing. I think tariff-relates price increases will be a one-off. It will take time before we know that for certain but we can’t wait for perfect … Read more
It’s been a pretty quiet session on the data and news side, but a lively one on the markets front. The US PCE was of course the main highlight of the day and the data came in line with expectations across the board. We had also the Canadian GDP which showed a bigger contraction than … Read more
The US dollar will likely finish the day at the lows today. It’s been a rollercoaster week with the greenback erasing most of the losses triggered by Powell’s dovish tilt just to give the gains back heading into the weekend. Today there was no meaningful catalyst for the downside as the PCE data came out … Read more
1 month annualised +1.9% vs +3.4% prior 6 months annualised +2.6% vs +2.8% prior 12 month annualised +2.7% vs +2.7 prior The 1 month annualised rate is very volatile, so don’t mistake that for inflation coming down. The 6 month and 12 month annualised rates are a better gauge of the trend. This article was … Read more
Prior 411 Total rig count 536 vs 538 prior Gas rigs 119 vs 122 prior This is not a market moving indicator as it’s very lagging. Oil rigs count is of course correlated to oil prices. When oil prices trend upwards, oil rigs count increases, and when oil prices trend downwards, oil rigs count decreases. … Read more
The upside in gold has been supported since Powell’s dovish tilt last Friday. Inflation expectations kept on climbing, while Treasury yields fell into new lows. That caused real yields to fall, giving further boost to gold prices. Today we are seeing a stronger push to the upside although we haven’t got any meaningful catalyst. This … Read more
There is no universal recipe for success in trading. However, there are some baselines you should follow to have a better shot at gaining profit. You can learn these vital reference points from your own mistakes—or choose the easier way and study the experience of others. In this article, Kar Yong Ang, financial analyst at … Read more
Prior 61.7 Current conditions 61.7 vs 60.9 prelim Prior 68.0 Expectations 55.9 vs 57.2 prelim Prior 57.7 Inflation expectations: 1 year 4.8% vs 4.9% prelim Prior 4.5% 5 year 3.5% vs 3.9% prelim Prior 3.4% The data is slightly lower than preliminary estimates and although inflation expectations are still higher than the prior month, they … Read more
Prior month -0.1% Advanced estimate for the month of July +0.1% GDP Q2: Q/Q annualized -1.6% vs -0.6% Prior 2.2% (revised to -2.0%) The Canadian dollar weakened across the board following the release as the data disappointed across the board. StatCan notes that the contraction in the second quarter was driven by significant declines in … Read more
Prior +2.0% HICP +2.1% vs +2.0% y/y expected Prior +1.8% The state readings, which were firmer than estimated, from earlier can be found here. Core annual inflation remains unchanged for a third straight month at 2.7%. That is still on the higher side as it holds above the ECB’s 2% target, so more work needs … Read more
