Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 43 bps (97% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 16 bps (86% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 47 bps (82% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 12 bps (96% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 56 bps … Read more
The increases in US tariffs are not expected to cause inflation to rise. It is therefore important to remain completely open about future monetary policy decisions. Inflation remains well under control. More than ever, in a volatile environment, agile pragmatism in light of data and forecasts is of the essence. Risks to growth still tilted … Read more
There’s a report doing the rounds that a lawmaker in Japan’s ruling LDP party has collected enough signatures to request the convening of a joint meeting of both houses of the National Diet. However, it is unclear as to what exactly this is for. Is it to do with trying to oust Ishiba? One would … Read more
Eurostoxx -0.7% Germany DAX -0.9% France CAC 40 -0.6% UK FTSE -0.2% Spain IBEX -0.4% Italy FTSE MIB -0.4% German automaker Volkswagen reported a steep decline in profits for Q2 and also lowered its full-year guidance, citing negative impact from Trump’s tariffs. Meanwhile, LVMH also reported weaker quarterly sales and that’s a negative drag for … Read more
Yesterday, was certainly the only “lively” day of the week in terms of data releases. Today, we have another boring day. The only notable releases are the German IFO and the US Durable Goods Orders data. Both of them will likely be ignored since they won’t change anything for the central banks or the markets. … Read more
The coincident index is seen keeping steady at 116.0, unchanged from April. The assessment of the index is also unchanged, seen as “halting to fall”. Here’s the trend of the coincident index over the past few years: Head on over to investingLive (formerly ForexLive) to get in on the know! This article was written by … Read more
It looks like we’ll be seeing the majority of analysts having to change their calls on the ECB outlook in the week(s) ahead. The meeting decision yesterday was expected but it was this leaked report that is causing traders to reprice expectations a fair bit more. Most quarters of the market were expecting the ECB … Read more
Trump inspected the Federal Reserve construction site to pressure the central bank for lower interest rates. In front of media: Powell fact-checked Trump’s claim that the $2.5 billion price tag had swelled to $3.1 billion Trump pulled a piece of paper from his suit jacket, handing it to Powell Powell replied “You just added in … Read more
Thailand has evacuated more than 100,000 residents from areas near its border with Cambodia, as the two countries engage in their most intense military conflict in over a decade. The Thai Interior Ministry confirmed on Friday that 100,672 people have been relocated to emergency shelters. The ongoing clashes have also led to a rising human … Read more
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate, … Read more
