One of the quieter but powerful signals in the equity market is the Market-on-Close (MOC) order imbalance. This is where institutions such as mutual funds, ETFs, and hedge funds place orders to buy or sell stocks at the official closing price. Exchanges begin releasing imbalance data 15 minutes before the close, showing whether more dollars are lined up to buy or to sell.
At investingLive.com (formerly ForexLive.com), we track these flows because they can reveal whether large pools of capital are moving into or out of equities. While no single indicator tells you exactly where the market is headed, this type of data is valuable decision support when combined with price action, volume, and other tools.
The Most Recent Five Days
Looking at the past week of MOC imbalance history gives us some context:
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September 2, 2025: A huge buy-side imbalance of $864 million. This was well above the 20-day moving average and suggests strong institutional inflows into the close.
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August 29, 2025: A net buy imbalance of $104 million. Modest but supportive of inflows.
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August 28, 2025: A large net sell imbalance of –$387 million, marking a sharp outflow day.
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August 27, 2025: A net sell imbalance of –$33 million, small but still negative.
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August 26, 2025: A net buy imbalance of $190 million, adding to the inflow side.
The Takeaway
Three of the last five sessions ended with net inflows, two with outflows. Importantly, the most recent day (Sep 2) saw one of the strongest inflows in weeks. That one day helped swing the 20-day moving average of imbalances higher again — a sign that money is leaning back toward the buy side.
What This Means for Traders and Investors
When institutions step in to buy heavily at the close, it often reflects portfolio allocations or fund creations that support the market in the near term. Conversely, strong sell imbalances may signal redemptions or rebalancing out of equities.
The inflow on September 2 is meaningful because it came after two days of outflows. For now, this tilts the short-term bias slightly more supportive for equities, though traders should always confirm with price action and other indicators.
Magic Wand – No. Decision Support – Yes.
MOC imbalance data isn’t a magic signal — it’s one piece of the bigger puzzle. At investingLive.com, our goal is to provide these insights as decision support so traders and investors can use them at their discretion.
The recent history shows capital moving back in after a brief dip, with yesterday’s strong inflow reinforcing a more constructive tone. Whether that momentum carries forward depends on how markets digest other factors, but for now, the imbalance data is leaning bullish.