Even after the much-anticipated NVIDIA earnings, the order flow picture is telling two very different stories between the stock itself and the broader S&P 500 index. SPY (S&P 500 ETF) is showing resilience. Despite trading slightly lower in pre-market at 647.64 (-0.2%), sentiment remains bullish. Option order flow carries a positive tilt, with 1.6 million … Read more
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are getting dragged lower as Nvidia shares extend losses. The catalyst was the WSJ report saying that Alibaba developed a new AI chip to help fill Nvidia void in China. The Chinese are of course trying to make their own AI chips given the interference from Trump’s adiministration. While … Read more
On Friday evening, the Federal Circuit court struck down the vast majority of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, ruling them illegal under laws that give Congress control of tariffs and tax policy. The 7-4 decision rules that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act was used improperly in the case of fentanyl tariffs against Mexico/Canada/China and … Read more
The ADP data has diverged with the NFP many times in the past. We’ve seen countless times the market moving on the ADP data just to get caught on the wrong side by the NFP report a couple of days later. The last time that happened was in July when the ADP showed -33K jobs … Read more
From the agency: the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.5 percent on August 29, up from 2.2 percent on August 26. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal … Read more
The Judge asked more time to preserve the status quo while she considers the merits of the legal fight. The Fed today said in a court filing that it takes no position in the lawsuit but that it wants a “prompt ruling” to remove “the existing cloud of uncertainty”. This article was written by Giuseppe … Read more
It will soon be time to recalibrate policy to better match our economy. Both mandates are in tensions now. Tariffs are pushing inflation higher and the labour market is slowing. I think tariff-relates price increases will be a one-off. It will take time before we know that for certain but we can’t wait for perfect … Read more
It’s been a pretty quiet session on the data and news side, but a lively one on the markets front. The US PCE was of course the main highlight of the day and the data came in line with expectations across the board. We had also the Canadian GDP which showed a bigger contraction than … Read more
The US dollar will likely finish the day at the lows today. It’s been a rollercoaster week with the greenback erasing most of the losses triggered by Powell’s dovish tilt just to give the gains back heading into the weekend. Today there was no meaningful catalyst for the downside as the PCE data came out … Read more
1 month annualised +1.9% vs +3.4% prior 6 months annualised +2.6% vs +2.8% prior 12 month annualised +2.7% vs +2.7 prior The 1 month annualised rate is very volatile, so don’t mistake that for inflation coming down. The 6 month and 12 month annualised rates are a better gauge of the trend. This article was … Read more
