Prior +1.7% HICP +1.7% vs +1.8% y/y expected Prior +1.7% Slight delay in the release by the source. Core annual inflation is seen accelerating a little to 2.1%, up from 2.0% in July. So, that will just play into the narrative of the ECB wanting to keep in pause mode for now. This article was … Read more
Headlines: Markets: USD leads, GBP lags on the day European equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.3% US 10-year yields up 1.8 bps to 4.225% Gold down 0.3% to $3,405.82 WTI crude down 0.4% to $64.35 Bitcoin down 1.6% to $110,106 There wasn’t too much action on the session as markets are looking to wrap … Read more
We have a pretty tranquil session ahead in terms of data releases. The main highlights are the US PCE report for July and the Canadian GDP. The Core PCE is expected at 2.9% Y/Y and 0.3% M/M. Unless we get notable deviations, I don’t expect the market to react to it too much given that … Read more
Prior 2.8% Core PCE M/M 0.3% vs 0.3% expected Prior 0.3% Headline PCE: PCE Y/Y 2.6% vs 2.6% expected Prior 2.6% PCE M/M 0.2% vs 0.2% expected Prior 0.3% Income/Spending: Personal income M/M 0.4% vs 0.4% expected Prior 0.3% Personal spending M/M 0.5% vs 0.5% expected 0.3% prior (revised to 0.4%) Minimal reaction in the … Read more
Even after the much-anticipated NVIDIA earnings, the order flow picture is telling two very different stories between the stock itself and the broader S&P 500 index. SPY (S&P 500 ETF) is showing resilience. Despite trading slightly lower in pre-market at 647.64 (-0.2%), sentiment remains bullish. Option order flow carries a positive tilt, with 1.6 million … Read more
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are getting dragged lower as Nvidia shares extend losses. The catalyst was the WSJ report saying that Alibaba developed a new AI chip to help fill Nvidia void in China. The Chinese are of course trying to make their own AI chips given the interference from Trump’s adiministration. While … Read more
On Friday evening, the Federal Circuit court struck down the vast majority of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, ruling them illegal under laws that give Congress control of tariffs and tax policy. The 7-4 decision rules that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act was used improperly in the case of fentanyl tariffs against Mexico/Canada/China and … Read more
The ADP data has diverged with the NFP many times in the past. We’ve seen countless times the market moving on the ADP data just to get caught on the wrong side by the NFP report a couple of days later. The last time that happened was in July when the ADP showed -33K jobs … Read more
From the agency: the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.5 percent on August 29, up from 2.2 percent on August 26. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal … Read more
The Judge asked more time to preserve the status quo while she considers the merits of the legal fight. The Fed today said in a court filing that it takes no position in the lawsuit but that it wants a “prompt ruling” to remove “the existing cloud of uncertainty”. This article was written by Giuseppe … Read more
