Economic outlook has improved slightly since June. Steady-hand policy is appropriate amid uncertainty. The main theme now for the ECB is holding rates steady as long as necessary and they will need strong negative reasons to deliver more. The market is now seeing a 50/50 chance of one last rate cut by year-end in December. … Read more
Prior month 16.4% revised to 16.5% Advanced estimate for durable goods for June -9.3% vs -10.8% estimate Ex Transportation 0.2% vs. 0.1%. Prior month 0.5% revised to 0.6% Ex Defense -9.4% vs 15.7% last month (revised up from 15.5%) NonDefense Cap ex Air -0.7% vs 0.2% estimate. Prior month 1.7% revised higher to 2.0% In … Read more
The Wall Street Journal is reporting that corporate America is bearing the brunt of the new U.S. tariffs this year. The initial cost is mostly being paid by U.S. importers (manufacturers, retailers, or brokers), and not foreign producers or consumers. Companies are fearing loss of market share as well as the public ire of Pres.Trump … Read more
Pres. Trump is speaking and says: There is a 50-50 chance of a deal with the EU I got the impression that Powell may be ready to lower rates Most trade deals will be done by August 1 We have the confines of a deal with China On Canada, could just be a tariff, not … Read more
The USDCAD moved higher (weaker CAD) following President Trump’s comments that some trade actions “could just be a tariff” rather than a negotiation, and that certain deals may be handled “by letter.” Technically, the pair had already been trending higher since bottoming on Wednesday. In today’s session, price action broke above the 100-hour moving average … Read more
I will never say I want a weak dollar When you have a strong dollar you can’t sell anything China and Japan only want a weak currency. Japan totally opened up to the US Maybe we will get that with the EU. On UK trade: We will talk more fine tuning on deal. Not a … Read more
Pres. Trump continues to talk and says: Meeting with UK PM Starmer tonight (he is heading to the UK). Says may even approve a deal. On UK trade: We will talk more fine tuning on deal. The GBPUSD is trading lower today, following the release of weaker-than-expected UK retail sales, which added fresh downside pressure … Read more
Major US indices are wondering to the upside, despite comments from Trump that a China deal was close, that an EU deal was 50-50, although he did speak more positively of the prospects, that the UK and US might announce a revised trade deal this weekend, and that he got the impression that Fed Powell … Read more
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q2 remained steady at 2.4%. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 2.4 percent on July 25, unchanged from July 18 after rounding. The forecasts of the major GDP subcomponents were all … Read more
May budget balance C$-0.23 billion vs surplus $1.17 billion in May 2024\ Budget year-to-date C$-6.5 billion versus $-43.15 billion prior This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com. fbs.mobi
