More again from Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida – CPI to dip then rise

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Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida Medium- and long-term inflation expectations are gradually heightening. Medium- and long-term inflation expectations are expected to continue rising but may slow temporarily before picking up again. Close attention is warranted on the direct trade impact on business fixed investment and private consumption. Consumer inflation is overshooting our expectations as … Read more

Is PIMCO warning runaway US spending may trap Fed, as fiscal strains test monetary limits?

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This tweet from PIMCO raises more questions than it answers, especially for runaway spening in the US: The more I reread this, the more I think its possible to simply substitute ‘US’ for ‘Brazil’. US government spending is already epically unsustainable, Trump’s recent spending increases and tax cuts for the wealthy make it even more. … Read more

Yen could face fresh storm as Japan vote fuels carry trade revival and BOJ policy doubts

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Bloomberg (gated) report that the yen carry trade, which collapsed last year, could see a major revival in the wake of Japan’s recent election, according to investors. The strategy—borrowing low-yield yen to invest in higher-yielding assets abroad—is gaining traction after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba lost his upper-house majority. The loss may push Ishiba to increase … Read more

More on Goldman Sachs forecast for 3 consecutive 2025 Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

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I had the forecast from Goldman Sachs posted yesterday during Asia time: Goldman Sachs expect three consecutive Federal Reserve 25bp cuts starting in September Recap/adding more now: Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming policy meeting on July 29-30, but anticipates rate cuts at each of the remaining … Read more

Oil: private survey of inventory shows a headline crude oil draw smaller than expected

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Via oilprice.com — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -1.6mn barrels Distillates -1.1mn bbls Gasoline -0.9 mn This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The two reports are … Read more

Major European indices close mixed

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The major European indices closed the day with mixed results. The German DAX and France’s CAC fell while the other major indices are closing near unchanged/marginally higher. German DAX, -1.09% France’s CAC, -0.69% UK’s FTSE 100 +0.12% Spain’s Ibex +0.07% Italy’s FTSE MIB unchanged Concerns about tariffs caused some indigestion in Germany. The EU is … Read more

S&P pulls back, but buyers still holding key support. Here's the story.

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The S&P index opened lower in early U.S. trading, weighed down by mounting concerns around corporate earnings, tariffs, and inflation. A weaker-than-expected Richmond Fed index added to the unease. While the broader trend has been decisively higher, there’s a growing sense that the market may be overbought. That said, in trending markets, prices often extend … Read more